The much-anticipated intervention by Beijing to quell the unrest in Hong Kong after PRC’s 70th anniversary celebration didn’t come to pass. It must have disappointed many Sino-philes (yours sincerely included) as well as the West which had done their utmost to provoke and goad China into a crackdown, a mini Tiananmen, if you like.
Piecing together all the information and grapevine, the explanation for Beijing’s inaction comes down to one Chinese idiom : One can’t stop the rain or his widowed mother from remarrying It means inevitability and it’s futile to resist it. The best way to deal with it is to let it run its course. Mao quoted the idiom when he was told Marshall Lin Biao had ?ed on a plane after his plot to assassinate Mao was exposed.
China’s “semi-of?cial” press Global Times said as much in its Opinion piece.
If PLA dominates the situation in Hong Kong and squelches the rioters, what will happen next? Hong Kong’s system lacks coordinated forces and mechanisms to consolidate the achievements of PLA intervention. The radical opposition forces have suf?cient room to resist intervention of the PLA and to smear and disrupt it. A possible collective attack by the West would mean huge political costs and serious uncertainty about Hong Kong’s future. “
” If the PLA steps in to help stabilize the situation, Hong Kong will bene?t from public security. But Hong Kong’s public opinion will certainly not buy it. They will enjoy the bene?ts of restored order while accusing Beijing of undermining the “one country, two systems” principle. “
Put another way, Beijing’s intervention is a thankless job, with no more than ?eeting bene?ts to both Hong Kong and PRC, but high political costs in the short-to-medium term. The simple reality is that the west controls the global narrative and has a stranglehold on world opinion. There’s an old Chinese saying : “You can’t cleanse yourself even if you jump into the Yellow River.” That was on July 25, half way through the 4-month turmoil. And it still holds true today, despite escalating violence in Hong Kong and after the 2-week leadership retreat at Beidaihe that concluded in mid-August. There were rumours that some of?cials urged prompt intervention to end the turmoil. President Xi apparently had another idea.
Beijing’s monitoring group ensconced in Shenzhen must have a rude awakening or even shock : One-third to one-half of Hongkongers including the civil servants and especially the postcolonial generation, hate their own motherland. They would rather be the subjects of a western colonial master than citizens of China. They make ideal fodder for western State actors and NGOs to destabilize and destroy Hong Kong, wet-dreaming that the color revolution in HKSAR could spread to the Mainland and topple CPC, achieving what they tried but failed in Tianan-men three decades ago. The Grand Prize of defeating CPC through color revolution is too tempting to the US State Department and the likes of Soros. Turning China into a puppet state would be the great triumph of imperialism and capitalism in the 21st century, even more exhilarating and momentous than the dissolution of USSR in the ?nal decade of the 20th century!
Colonization of territory is easy to counter, but not colonization of the mind. It’d be a Herculean task for even Beijing to de-colonise Hongkongers’ mentality, with uncertain outcome. The most effective way to bring about a changed mindset is not through externally-imposed or enforced regime. Rather, it’s through self-discovery or realization.
In the context of Hong Kong, national education was resisted and undermined in schools. Twenty-two years after the return of sovereignty of Hong Kong to China, identi?cation with China has weakened and hatred of China and CPC has intensi?ed through anti-China teaching materials from kindergartens to universities.
Enforcing national education after Beijing’s forceful intervention is clearly not the answer or remedy. Hongkongers must be made to realize the folly of hating their own motherland and destroying their city.
Question then is how to make Hongkongers realize their wayword way. The answer is not dif?cult to fathom and ?nd : Let the rioters rage and rampage, destroying property and turning on their fellow residents, until it ?nally and badly hurts the oligarchs and ordinary people who support or acquiesce to the violence. Four months on, shutdowns of public transport, disruption of daily lives and lost business have taken their toll, but not quite enough to change the colonised mind and hatred of China. That’s largely because the riots and violence occur during weekends and public holidays. Many regard the disruption and inconvenience as a small price to pay for their demands for universal suffrage and unfettered freedom. It’d be silly at this point for Beijing to intervene.
Yes, it’s a contest of will between Beijing and western color revolutionists. It’s also a battle of patience and endurance between the central government and anti-China Hongkongers.
Economically, the turmoil has caused the Hong Kong econo-my a few billion dollars, and a 1% reduction in GDP. That’s a small price to pay if the Chinahating Hongkongers recognize their folly. Hong Kong has one of the highest foreign reserves in the world, more than 400 billion USD. Can NED and Soros outspend HKSAR? And how long and how much losses can the Hong Kong oligarchs and foreign businesses sustain and bear before they call off their hounds?
Already, Blackturd-in-Chief Jim-my Lai has published an article claiming victory and exhorting a winding down of the violence. The oligarchs called for an end to the mayhem weeks earlier. Western MSM have changed their tone, reporting the riots as they are. Those instigators and shitstirers have sat up and taken notice, and begun to be circumspect lest they got ensnared in their own trap. They want to keep the powder dry for another day, as they did in Occupy Central in 2014.
President Xi’s strategy makes eminent sense when China’s sovereignty over Hong Kong is not at risk, and the 1.4 billion Mainland Chinese and the entire CPC leadership are united behind him and CPC. The Yellow Vests protests have gone on in Paris for almost a year now, and Macron is still in ?rm control. Hong Kong is just a Chinese city with a population of 7 million.
The Hong Kong turmoil is vastly different from the Tianan-men Square protests in 1989. Then, the Chinese leadership was divided, and the threat of massive violence by students whose leaders were intent to see bloodshed was real. The Chinese economy was fragile.
The color revolution in Hong Kong is destined to fail. This time round, Beijing will make sure it’ll be the last in Hong Kong. The betting shop is open.